APPLYING LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL TO ANALYZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LAND USE CHANGE AND NATURAL - SOCIAL FACTORS: A CASE STUDY IN TIEN YEN DISTRICT, QUANG NINH PROVINCE

Abstract

      The objective of this research was to analyze the correlation between land use change and the social-natural factors in Tien Yen district using logistic regression model. The target variable was land use change and the dependent variables were elevation, slope, distance to the main road, distance to the secondary road, distance to river and stream, distance to village, ethnology, policies, population density, population growth rate, and average food per capita. The model was run in SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Science) software version 20. The results showed different relationship between land use change and social-natural factors in different periods. From 2000 to 2005, the land use change of Tien Yen increased with the increase of elevation, distance to the secondary road and Dao ethnic minority, whereas slope, distance to stream and Kinh, Tay, San Chi ethnic minorities decreased. In the period of 2005 - 2010, the land use change in Tien Yen have positive correlation with slope, ethnology and Government policies while elevation and distance to the main roads showed reverse correlation.