ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN THE DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX FOR QUANG NINH PROVINCE

DOI: 10.18173/2354-1059.2025-0013

Tóm tắt

In the context of climate change and socio-economic development, the number of hot days in Quang Ninh province has shown an increasing trend in both intensity and frequency. This study utilizes meteorological data from 1991 to 2020, alongside climate change scenario data for Vietnam from 2021 to 2050. Additionally, the research applies the Heat Index (HI) method and employs multivariable linear regression analysis. The results indicate that over the next three decades (2021 - 2050), the trend in the increase of HImax at the danger level (from 41 °C to 54 °C) is projected to be 5.857 - 6.514 weeks/5 years under the RCP 4.5 scenario, and 5.457 - 6.514 weeks/5 years under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the number of days with HImax at the extreme danger level (≥54 °C) is projected to be 22 - 80 days/30 years, whereas under the RCP 8.5 scenario, it is projected to be 35 - 118 days/30 years. Notably, in Quang Ha, the number of days with HImax at the extreme danger level is expected to surge in the future compared to the past (1991 - 2020), increasing by a factor of 4.4 (RCP 4.5) and by a factor of 6.5 (RCP 8.5). Analysis of the spatial distribution of HImax contours reveals significant changes, adhering to a latitudinal rule in the past and transitioning to a non-latitudinal rule in the future. The number of days with a risk of heat stress is expected to be more prevalent and intense in the future than in the past, potentially exerting a negative impact on public health and diminishing the quality of life in Quang Ninh.