20. CHANGES IN TYPHOON ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST VIETNAM SEA

Tóm tắt

Typhoons and Tropical Depressions (TDs) are among the natural disasters that cause severe consequences in terms of both human lives and property. Accurately forecasting the intensity, track, and resulting heavy rainfall and strong winds from typhoons and tropical depressions remains a very challenging problem. As is known, during their life cycle (existence, development, and movement), the intensity of typhoons in the East Vietnam Sea changes quite complexly, with periods of weakening and periods of rapid intensification. Upon making landfall, due to friction, typhoons and tropical depressions generally weaken quickly. However, some storms maintain strong intensity and persist for a relatively long duration, causing extensive damage. Understanding the changes in typhoons enables us to implement preventive measures and mitigate damage in the work of disaster prevention and control. In this paper, I will present the change in typhoon activity affecting Vietnam using a statistical method. The paper has collected data on Tropical Cyclones (TCs) operating in the East Vietnam Sea and affecting Vietnam from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) and the Japan Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) from 1961 to 2024. Statistical analysis of strong typhoons and their damage to our country from 2006 to the present shows that typhoons are tending to become stronger, accompanied by severe losses of life and property. The report has identified the changes in TC activity in recent years, which are positively significant for forecasting and natural disaster risk prevention.