4. Study on developing a baseline and evaluating the effectiveness of climate change adaptation in the central coastal region

Abstract

Assessing the effectiveness of climate change adaptation measures still faces many challenges, especially the lack of quantitative methods. This study applies an integrated approach to baseline development and quantitatively assesses the effectiveness of adaptation measures based on risk analysis, applied to the Central Coast region, with a case study in Quang Nam province (formerly). This approach is based on the 2020 IPCC risk assessment framework, defining risk as a function of three factors: Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. The study developed a “baseline” scenario (assuming no new solutions) and compared it with the “effective” scenario (assuming synchronous implementation of 16 solutions) for the 2030 and 2050 time points. The results showed that the baseline forecasts the average risk of the province to increase continuously from 0.42 (in 2020) to 0.49 (in 2050), pushing most localities into the “High” and “Very high” risk levels. In contrast, when the solutions are applied synchronously, the risk drops sharply to 0.33 in 2030 and remains stable, bringing all localities to the “Low” and “Very low” risk levels. Further analysis shows that the “Improving living conditions and basic social infrastructure” solution group is the most effective when implemented independently and is the only group capable of reversing the trend of increasing risks. The study confirms the need for a comprehensive, integrated adaptation strategy. It highlights that investing in people and social well-being is a core foundation for building resilience to climate change. The methodology provides a useful scientific tool for policymakers to prioritize actions and allocate resources effectively.