Application of Crystal ball for optimization of electricity operation of Thac Ba, Tuyen Quang, and cascade reservoirs of Son La and Hoa Binh in consideration of downstream water supply

Abstract

     Optimum Operation of multi-purpose reservoirs and reservoir system is a concern of many reseachers in Vietnam and in the World for maximizing socio-economy effectiveness of reservoir operation.  This article summaries results on application of Crystal Ball software for optimum operation of Thac Ba Reservoir, Tuyen Quang Reservoir, and cascade reservoir of Son La and Hoa Binh.  Crystal Ball is an economic optimization and risk analyst software developped by Oracle but first time used for these mentioned reservoirs and reservoir system operation. Research results show that this software is very good if compared with current optimum models because of it's capacity in uncertanty analysis and forecasting that supports to decision making in reservoir operation.