Flood risks in Coatal regions of Vietnam coastal regions

Tóm tắt

     In Vietnam, there has been a growing demand for the application of risk analysis, the risk based decision making and risk management in various industries and sectors of government. Although the risk-related concepts i.e risk analysis and managements, risk-based decision making, risk-based design have been explored in various industries, there has not been yet any framework/guidance on how risk should be quantified and what would be the acceptable risk/risk criteria. In this paper an overview of concepts for risk analysis and risk management is given. Risk assessment and evaluation, basic risk related concepts and their developments are discussed. Methods and applications to establish an acceptable risk level and safety criteria will be reviewed. The present framework of acceptable risk level and risk-based optimal safety for flood defences worldwide is summarised. Possible applications of the methods to Vietnamese situation are discussed. Special attention is paid to how the risk based framework could be applied to Vietnam conditions in determining the acceptable risk level of flooding at the national scale of Vietnam. The proposed criteria will be tested and applied in the assessment of flood risks in the low-lying coastal regions in Nam Dinh. Safety standards are explored by considering individual and societal acceptable levels of risk in a view of its current protected value and socio- economic developments.