Using the cellular automaton markov model for forecasting and assessing of land use change in the future in Nakdong river basin in Korea

Abstract

     The forecasting and assessing of landuse change in the future is not only a plays a significant role to assess change of land use changes but also great significance in help for water resources management, land use resources planning and management in region. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to forecast and assess of land use change by combined using both of Cellular Automaton and Markov (CA_Markov) model, which was simulated to Nakdong river basin. The forecasted results of the land use change showed the large change of two land use types that was an increase of urban land area from 1.44% to 5.59%, while agriculture land area was significantly decreased from 25.99% to 21.26% from year of 2000 to 2080, respectively. Other periods of land use future of 2030, 2050 with increasing of urban land percent of 3.42%, 4.25%, while decreasing of agriculture land percent of 23.82%, 22.85% respectively. Others land use types is not so much to change. These results of paper showed the land use change which is really necessity to consider long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies for land use management in the future in study area.