The variations of heavy rainfall in the northern region of vietnam under the global warming: A case study of heavy rainfall event from 30 october to 05 november, 2008

Abstract

   In this paper, a heavy rainfall event in the northern region of Vietnam in August 2008 was selected for simulation, using a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and combining with ensemble simulation method. Rainfall variability in future climate scenarios was investigated using numerical simulations based on pseudo global warming conditions, constructed using fifth-phase results of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project multi-model global warming experiments. The simulation results of maximum six-hourly rainfall in northern Vietnam will slightly decrease under the climate change conditions, whereas, total precipitation would increase significantly in all three global climate models in the future. The spatial distribution of heavy rain would tend to shift to the northern mountainous regions of Vietnam. Simulation results suggest that global warming may correlate with a significant increase in total rainfall.