A model site of distributing development of Can Gio mangrove forest under impacts of climate change and rising sea water

Abstract

The study was carried out in Can Gio mangrove forest, Ho Chi Minh city with the aim at: buiding models for mangrove development according to scenarios of climate change and rising of sea water; establishing models for distributing development of mangrove forest following the scenarios using overlaying methods of topographic and vegetatition distribution maps as to estimate distributing area of each species and group of species according to terrain elevation with 0.1m difference; establishing correlation equation between the distribution and occupied areas. Objects of the study were mangrove species representing for the ecosystems such as Avicennia alba, Rhizophora apiculata, Phoenix paludosa and Sonneratia caseolaris.  The study has isentified area of forest types in Can Gio is 19.784 hectares occupies by Rhizophora apiculata, 80.7 ha for Sonneratia caseolaris, 3.232 ha for Phoenix paludosa, and 2.025 ha for Avicennia alba. Their distribution was seen from -1.7 m to 5.1 m of attitude. However, almost all area are at the height from - 0.2 m to 2.4 m (99. 91%). Area with an elevation below the average sea level (0 m) is 476.99 ha. Area with an elevation above average sea level is 34,722.98 hectares and the area with elevation that equal to the average sea level is 641.39 ha. It was seen that each plant species adapt to a certain altitude terrain and each type of vegetation has a close correlation with the elevation of the terrain. The study has also determined the appropriate height and distribution of each species as well as group of species according to terrain elevation. A fit of the equation for 4 simulation correlating between species and group of species based on elevation and distributing area has been checked as to allow determination of distributing area of species and group of species following scenarios of climate change becomes convenient.