A Modified Semi-parametric Regression Model For Flood Forecasting

Abstract

In recent years, inundation, one of natural calamities, occurs frequently and fiercely. We are sustained severe losses in the floods every year. Therefore, the development of control methods to determine, analyze, model and predict the floods is indispensable and urgent. In this paper, we propose a justified semi-parametric regression model for flood water levels forecasting. The new model has three components. The first one is parametric elements of the model. They are water level, precipitation, evaporation, air-humidity and ground-moisture values, etc. There is a complex connection among these parametrics. Several innovated regression models have been offered and experimented for this complicated relationship. The second one is a non-parametric ingredient of our model. We use the Arnak S. Dalalyan et al.’s effective dimension-reduction subspace algorithm and some modified algorithms in neural networks to deal with it. They are altered back-propagation method and ameliorated cascade correlation algorithm. Besides, we also propose a new idea to modify the conjugate gradient one. These actions will help us to smooth the model’s non-parametric constituent easily and quickly. The last component is the model’s error. The whole elements are essential inputs to operational flood management. This work is usually very complex owing to the uncertain and unpredictable nature of underlying phenomena. Flood-water-levels forecasting, with a lead time of one and more days, was made using a selected sequence of past water-level values observed at a specific location. Time-series analytical method is also utilized to build the model. The results obtained indicate that, with a new semi-parametric regression one and the effective dimension-reduction subspace algorithm, together with some improved algorithms in neural network, the estimation power of  the modern statistical model is reliable and auspicious, especially for flood forecasting/modeling