ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE RED RIVER DELTA
Tóm tắt
The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used to analyse drought conditions in the past 54 years (1961-2014) and to assess possible drought conditions in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the Red River Delta. The results show that with different timescales, the drought conditions of the Red River Delta tended to increase during the period of 1961-2014. Compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), the number of drought spells are likely to decrease in the future under both scenarios. The projected drought changes of the 1-, 3-month timescales are smaller than those of the 6-, 12-month timescales. Remarkably, the drought intensity of 1-, 3-month timescales is likely to be more extreme by the end-21st century under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
