THE ABILITY OF RCA4 REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL TO SIMULATE AND PROJECT SURFACE SOLAR IRRADIATION OVER VIET NAM

Tóm tắt

Currently, the application of numerical models in simulating, forecasting, and predicting meteorological factors and features of the atmosphere, including solar radiation combined using satellite data, is widely used. Therefore, comparing the difference between the parameters calculated from the model with the satellite is extremely necessary, thereby evaluating the quality of the model as well as the quality of the satellite products compared to the value of the satellite with monitoring or re-analysis, is the basis for making accurate forecasts/forecasts in the future.

This study aims to assess the regional climate model RCA4 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to simulate surface solar irradiation (SSI) based on estimated radiation data from the Himawari-8 satellite for Viet Nam using statistical indicators.

The results showed that the radiation values estimated from model correlated well with estimates from the satellite, which has been validated very close to the observation at the surface. In the spring and winter, the general correlation trend shows that the radiation at the stations in the North tend to be higher than the stations in the South of Viet Nam. Based on the assessment of the RCA4 model compared to satellites in the period (2016 - 2018), the results of model are used to analyze the progress of solar radiation during the year in 7 climate zones of Viet Nam between different versions. It can be seen that the maximum/minimum values of the month do not change much between versions. Comparing to the period 1976 - 2005, the estimated short-wave radiation at the surface in the period 2020 - 2050 decreases in most of Viet Nam for both scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In contrast, the Central Highlands region shows an increase in short-wave radiation.