Spatial and Temporal Modeling of Land use/Land cover Change at the Ca River Basin (North Central Viet Nam) Using Markov Chain and Cellular Automata Approach
Simulation of Land use/Land cover (LULC) change has been conducted extensively in the past with varying techniques and methodologies with Markov Chain incorporating Cellular Automata approach among those. The Markov–Cellular Automata (Markov_CA) model has been applied worldwide, however, model parameter calibration is site–specific. In Viet Nam, research on LULC change a pressing issue given the rapid socio–economic development. Research on LULC change is a necessary starting point for impacts assessment on water resources, land resources, ecosystems, environment, etc. However, what we lack is a method for modeling our insights to simulate LULC fluctuations and to project future LULC. Therefore, this article offers a way to combine known problems to produce a new result. The change of LULC for the period 2005–2015 will be simulated and will result in a prediction of the LULC of 2030. In addition, the calibrated Markov_CA model adapted to the study area will also be a valuable reference for employment in similar areas. Finally, the expected results and the calibrated model are validated by the Kappa coefficient and provide a good level of agreement.