Assessment of inflation volatility and implied in operating monetary policy in Vietnam

Abstract

The paper explains the volatility of inflation over the period 2006-2013 according to very different patterns. The change of the inflation differential between years is explained by many different causes like high credit growth and sustained monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy in sync. Through integrated component phaa of 11 commodity groups in the index of inflation to clarify the extent of the contribution of commodity groups, use econometric models for forecasting ARIMA-X12 inflation in 2014 and launched implied in operating the monetary policy aimed at maintaining a stable inflation rate.