Rainfall-Runoff and Inundation of Ma River Basin Under Global Warming

Tóm tắt

Vietnam has been considered as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world under global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated the increasing trend in the total annual rainfall in Vietnam in the mid-21st century, where 70% of the amount of rainfall will be delivered by the summer monsoon. The most problematic rainfall-related disasters in the northern mountainous regions in Vietnam, floods and inundations, are also expected to become even more severe in the coming future. In recent years, the Ma river basin has been undergoing the noticeably increasing trend of flood disasters. Since Ma River basin plays an important role in the development of the vast Lai Chau - Son La - Thanh Hoa economic regions, establishing the solid understanding of the current and future hydro-meteorological characteristics of the Ma watershed is very important to prepare the countermeasure for the coming severe variation in rainfall intensity and frequency. In this research, the rainfall-runoff and inundation characteristics of the Ma watershed have been investigated associated with the corresponded climate conditions of the present (2000-2009) and future (2060-2069). The Rainfall-Runoff and Inundation (RRI) model were used for the simulation of watershed hydrological characteristics. The essential future precipitation inputs for RRI were achieved by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model nested inside GFDL-CM3, and MIROC-5 models. The results of this study suggest the severe flood and inundation condition of Ma watershed in the mid-21st century.