Ứng dụng mô hình MIKE 3 mô phỏng xâm nhập mặn sông Ninh Cơ trong điều kiện biến đổi khí hậu và nước biển dâng

Abstract

Vietnam is projected as a country that will be severely affected by climate change based on a scenario constructed by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in 2016. With regard to the representative concentration pathway  RCP8.5, the surface temperature in the Northern region is likely to increase from 0,8 ÷ 1,1⁰C, 2,0 ÷ 2,3⁰C, and 3,3 ÷ 4,0⁰C in the near-term, mid-term, and long-term climate, respectively. The dry season precipitation is expected to decrease 15% in the Red River Delta. Sea level is projected to rise from 17 ÷ 36cm and 51 ÷ 106cm in the mid-term and long-term climate, sequentially. These lead to the risk of dry season flow deficit, low water level in downstream rivers; rising sea level combined with high tides will accelerate further salinity intrusion, including the Ninh Co River. The progress of saline intrusion in the future is raising concerns about the risk of serious freshwater shortage, which directly affects the ecological environment, socio-economics, and livelihoods of millions of people in the region. In response to this threat, it is necessary to calculate and forecast saline intrusion for specific areas. They are considered a scientific basis to propose appropriate measures and solutions in order to minimize adverse impacts caused by the saline intrusion. The paper presents the results of 3-dimensional model application MIKE 3 for simulating and forecasting salinity intrusion into the Ninh Co River corresponding to scenarios on climate change and sea level rise in 2030, 2050, and 2100.