Credit in real estate in Vietnam

Tóm tắt

The paper accesses the macroeconomics impact of credit in real estate in Vietnam by employing a time-varying structural vector autregression (TVC-SVAR) and a data sample of 24 observations from Q1/2019 to Q4/2024. The empirical evidence records that real estate credit helps fuel economic growth in Vietnam. A 1 percent increase in the real estate business credit raises the economic growth by 0.3 percent in the second quarter, then, this impact gradually decreases to disappear after the sixth quarter. Meanwhile, a 1 percent increase in real estate consumption credit increases the economic growth by 1.5 percent in the first quarter, and the impact disappears after the 10th quarter. At the same time, the real estate credit also affects the asset market with the impact depending on the type of credit. The credit in real estate business increases the size of stock market capitalization and gold prices, while credit in real estate consumption has almost no significant impact on these two macroeconomic variables.