Assessing the impact of digital trade policies on economic growth: A propensity score matching and difference-in-differences analysis in Southeast Asia

Tóm tắt

The rapid expansion of digital trade has restructured global commerce in Southeast Asia, where accelerated technological adoption intersects with high growth potential. Digital trade policies-covering e-commerce facilitation, digital payments, and cross-border data governance—constitute core institutional drivers of growth and regional integration. This study estimates their causal effect on economic growth using Propensity Score Matching combined with Difference-in-Differences (DiD) to address policy endogeneity. Panel data for ASEAN economies from 2015 to 2023 integrate macroeconomic indicators with policy adoption measures. Policy adoption increases annual GDP growth by 2.5 percent, with heterogeneous effects across income groups and policy dimensions. Strongest effects occur in high-income economies and in regimes prioritizing data governance and e-commerce facilitation.