Các yếu tố vĩ mô quyết định cán cân thanh toán của Việt Nam: Phân tích thực nghiệm từ năm 2008 đến 2023

Abstract

This study investigates the drivers of Vietnam's Balance of Payments (BOP). From 2008 to 2023, as Vietnam became more globally connected, we've seen how key economic players -interest rates, trade balance, foreign direct investment (FDI), and the consumer price index (CPI) - have influenced its financial standing. We aim to clearly show how these factors impact the BOP's ups and downs, especially with increasing trade and external shocks. We analyzed quarterly data from the International Monetary Fund and Vietnam's General Statistics Office to develop our model. Utilising STATA software, we derived several notable results: although our model is statistically significant (F-statistic = 8.51; p-value < 0.05), indicating a valid relationship, it accounts for approximately 37.4% of the variation in the Balance of Payments (R² = 0.3739). This suggests that additional factors influence the outcome. Among the economic indicators examined, only the balance of trade (BOT) demonstrated a significant impact on the Balance of Payments, exhibiting a positive and robust association (coefficient = 0.66391; p-value = 0.001). This implies that a one-unit increase in the trade balance corresponds to an approximate increase of 0.66 units in the Balance of Payments. Conversely, interest rates, foreign direct investment (FDI), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) did not show statistically significant effects during the period under review. These findings highlight the pivotal role of trade efficiency in enhancing Vietnam's Balance of Payments. To promote macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth, policy measures should prioritise increasing exports, managing imports effectively, and maintaining a stable trade environment.