FORECAST OF THE LABOR FORCE AGED 15 AND OLDER IN VIETNAM

Abstract

This study presents the analyses and forecasts of time series data using different methods. Methods used include Brown, Holt, Damped Trend and Winters on the labor force statistics aged 15  from the first quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2024. The forecasting methods are evaluated using the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and correlation coefficient R. The results show that The Holt method present the lowest error and is most suitable for forecasting labor force from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the fourth quarter of 2025. The results of this study will be used to formulate policies, plans and strategies on human resource development