GREEN GROWTH TRANSITION AND ITS LINKAGE TO CARBON NEUTRALITY: A STUDY IN VIETNAM

Abstract

This study employs the Wavelet Quantile Regression (WQR) model to decompose the data into different time scales (short-, medium-, and long-term), thereby estimating the impact of macroeconomic variables at different quantiles during the carbon neutrality process. The empirical results for the period from 2000 to 2023 indicate that Agricultural Eco-Efficiency (AEE) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) play a dominant role in reducing emissions, particularly at higher quantiles. Green Technological Innovation (GI) and Green Growth (GG) contribute to promoting green transition in the short and medium term; however, their effects lack long-term sustainability. Trade Openness (TRA) exhibits heterogeneous impacts, showing potential in facilitating green technology transfer while also posing the risk of increasing emissions. Overall, the relationships among the variables vary considerably across quantiles and economic cycles, reflecting the complexity of the carbon neutrality process in Vietnam.