Establish and analyze construction schedule taking into account the uncertain factors of the works using the ProbSched program

Abstract

Stochastic simulation analysis of project schedule is reflecting more closely to reality and helping managers make more accurate decisions in planning as well as executing the project. This article introduces learning and using ProbSched -a probabilistic schedule analysis system through graph and a complementary program of the Stroboscope simulation system -to establish and analyze schedule and costs of a project in which the duration and/or cost of the activity is uncertain and must be determined probabilistically. A numerical example is carried out to clarify the effectiveness of the system in predicting construction schedule.The results show that not only the ProbSched system is a powerful, flexible and reliable tool to model the uncertainty in time and cost of activities during the process of establishing and analyzing project construction schedule, but also its usage is quite simple, user-friendly and highly practical.