Vietnam fertility trend and determinants after a decade at the replacement level: an implication for the recent rebound in developed regions

Tóm tắt

Vietnam has more than 5 decades of fertility control policy and now authorities are looking for a change after a decade of plateau fertility at the replacement level. They raised questions about fertility determinants which could help predict the total fertility course in coming years. There were 5 intermediate determinants selected and brought into analysis in a period of 10-15 years. Meaningful visual graphs were employed to identify patterns and changes between determinants and total or age group fertilities overtime. From the data of 63 provinces, in the last decade, there were 2 opposite trends to keep the country wide fertility in balance: declining one in less developed areas, and uprising one
in low land developed regions. While the former was a result of development and its components like poverty reduction, education for girls, gender equity and public health, the later was the consequence of migration process more obviously in industrialized provinces. Vietnam is still facing possible rising fertility unless the family planning services and jobs are available for young couples. In this point of view, there is a need for immediate and effective family planning and job creation policies for the youth in both less and developed regions. The fi ndings not only supported but also applied Adaptation theory to explain the rebound of fertility in developed regions. At a larger picture, the recent rebound of fertility in developed countries which experienced a long, continuous fl ows of migrants could be part of migration process and continue evolving.