Macroeconomic factors affecting e-government development: Short- and long-run evidence from Vietnam

Abstract

<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the E-Government Development Index (EGDI) and key macroeconomic factors, namely labor productivity, exports, and inflation, in the context of Vietnam from 2000 to 2024. The EGDI data, originally published biennially by the United Nations, were interpolated to construct an annual time series, while independent variables were retrieved from the World Bank. Methodologically, the study employs the ARDL framework to capture both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships, complemented by the Bounds test and post-estimation diagnostics to ensure robustness. The findings reveal that in the long run, labor productivity, exports, and inflation exert negative effects on EGDI, suggesting a weak alignment between economic growth and e-government reforms. In the short run, fluctuations in exports and productivity also show adverse impacts, while the error correction term indicates slow adjustment toward equilibrium. These results imply that enhancing EGDI requires more targeted policies: increasing public spending on information technology, developing national data platforms and digital customs systems to integrate trade liberalization with administrative modernization, and maintaining macroeconomic stability to safeguard fiscal capacity for digital investment.</span></p>