Application of the Gravity Model to Analyze Factors Affecting Vietnam’s Wood and Wood Products Exports

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of Vietnam’s exports of wood and wood products using the gravity model framework. Employing Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects Model (FEM), and Random Effects Model (REM) estimation techniques, the research analyzes panel data from 18 trading partner countries over the period 2004–2023. The results reveal that the GDP of importing countries, Vietnam’s timber harvest volume, foreign direct investment, participation in free trade agreements (FTAs), and the COVID-19 pandemic all have a positive influence on export turnover. Conversely, the total labor force of the importing country, the real exchange rate, and geographical distance exert a negative impact. Based on these findings, the study offers policy recommendations to enhance the growth of Vietnam’s wood and wood product exports.