Spatial Spillover Effects of Transport Infrastructure Investment: Evidence from Vietnam

Abstract

This study examines and quantifies the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure (TI) investment on economic growth (EG) in Vietnam, while comparing differences across policy phases and economic regions. The analysis employs the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) using a provincial-level panel dataset spanning 2000–2019. Estimations are conducted at both the national and regional levels, with the sample split into two sub-periods: 2000–2010 and 2011–2019, to reflect shifts in infrastructure policy. The results indicate that the spatial autocorrelation coefficient (ρ) is statistically significant, confirming the presence of positive spillover effects. Infrastructure investment exerts a substantial direct impact on EG, while indirect effects through neighbouring provinces are also positive and become more pronounced after 2010. Positive spillovers are evident in the Southern and Northern key economic regions, whereas the Central region and the Mekong Delta exhibit negative spillover patterns, likely due to resource competition. This study provides the first comprehensive empirical evidence on the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure investment in Vietnam. It highlights regional and temporal heterogeneity in spillover impacts and underscores the importance of regional connectivity in infrastructure policy design.