Fluctuations in Gold Prices and Their Spillover Effects on the Vietnamese Stock Market

Abstract

Purpose: This study analyzes the relationship between gold price fluctuations and the Vietnamese stock market, specifically the VN-Index.
Design/methodology/approach: The study employs the ARDL model to analyze data from 1 January 2020, to 31 December 2024.
Findings: The results show a long-term cointegration relationship between gold prices and the VN-Index. Additionally, gold prices have an inverse impact on the stock market. Specifically, when gold prices increase, the VN-Index tends to decrease. This reflects investor sentiment, as gold is seen as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty, leading to a shift of capital from the stock market to gold.
Originality/value: This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between gold prices and the Vietnamese stock market. It also clarifies the short-term and long-term effects of gold prices on the VN-Index through the ARDL model. The research results offer valuable insights for regulatory authorities to improve gold market policies and forecast capital flows. Furthermore, this study helps investors better understand the role of gold as a safe-haven asset and its influence on stock market volatility. Based on this, the paper provides important information for policymakers and investors and proposes measures to mitigate the inverse impact of gold prices on the stock market. Specifically, the need to maintain financial market balance in Vietnam is highlighted through policy adjustments, guiding capital flows into other financial channels and stabilizing investor sentiment.