Model for predicting Thai Binh mangrove forest dynamics under variable environmental conditions and sea level rise

Abstract

    It is well-known that the mangrove ecosystems play important roles in coastal regions . However, the impacts of climate change on this ecosystem become clearer recently. Therefore, mangrove management is quite a difficult undertaking because of its geographic conditions and its complex bio-geological processes. Mathematical models that simulate the underlying processes governing the growth of mangrove in dependence of environmental factors such as salinity, tophography or temperature are effective tools for supporting the mangrove ecosystem management. In this study, an ecological model (which was build up and apply for mangroves in Can Gio Biosphere Reserved) to simulate the development of mangrove attributes under influences of environmental factors is developed and applied to planted mangroves in coastal districts of Thai Binh Province. This model is the applied to simulate the dynamics of mangrove species under three scenarios of inundation levels and the changes of salinity and temperature caused by the influences of the global warming effect. The results of the simulations show that all three exanimated mangroves species' health and composition are affected dramatically under the changes of environmental conditions. Base on the simulation output the planning for sustainable mangroves development were proposed for the year 2030, 2050 and 2100.