Trend analysis and identifying precipitation altering of climate change scenarios using Mann-Kendall test in the Nakdong river basin in Korea

Abstract

      Purpose of this study is to investigate for trend identifying of climate change data in Nakdong river basin. In this study, the Mann-Kendall test method was used to detect trends in a time series of climate change data for precipitation data at sixteen stations in region with period 1983-2098 (117 years) under scenarios as A2, B1 and A1B. Results showed the positive trend with 95% confidence interval at three stations, four stations, and four stations under A2, B1, and A1B respectively. Moreover, the results obtained with the Mann-Kendall tests showed agreement in their assessments of monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trends. The variability of negative and positive trends at various stations points to the need for more detailed studies on the climate change of this region. In addition, the result of Mann-Kendall test also detected that the downstream of basin under most of scenarios will receive precipitation much more than upstream in Nakdong river basin in the future. These results of study could be useful to provide for managers in water resources planning and management in this region.