Impact of the climate change on extreme precipitation in South Central and Central Highlands of Vietnam according to multi - global climate models

Abstract

     Currently, under the impact of climate change, heavy rains occur more and more frequently. Climate change scenarios for Vietnam show that extreme rainfall tends to vary widely, especially in the South Central and Central Highlands. To further clarify the heavy rainfall in the future due to the impacts of climate change, the article focuses on analyzing and evaluating the changing of the average maximum 1, 3, 5, 7-day rainfall in the research area for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Eleven Global Climate Models have been used to simulate the fluctuations of heavy rainfall under the impacts of climate change. The results show that most of the models have an upward trend of rainfall with great variation from over 0% to 70-80%. The rainfall varies greatly depending on the scenarios, calculation models, input data as well as the methods of narrowing and error correction. Therefore, in order to increase the reliability of the results, it sould be carefully evaluated and refered to other models and studies.