Application of Regional Climate Model to project extreme climatic events and their impacts on water resources in the Dong Nai river basin and vicinity areas

Abstract

      This paper introduces Decision Scaling approach to assess impacts of climate change on water resourcessystem in the context of uncertain climate change. As a part of the study on assessment of impacts of climatechange on water resources system in the Krong Pa District - Gia Lai Province using this approach, thispaper analyzes the water shortage in this area in recent years in order to identify performance thresholds ofthe system, and then assesses water shortage situation in the district during baseline period (1986-2005)according to the performance thresholds. The results show that, water shortage is serious in the Krong Padistrict in recent years. The year 2015 was selected as the drought-threshold-year of the system. Via MikeHydro simulation, performance threshold for different water sectors are identified: reliability of 78% foragriculture, 96% for water supply and 83% for hydropower. The result of water balance in baseline periodshows that while all water supply and hydropower nodes are over the performance thresholds, one amongfour irrigation nodes is lower than the performance thresholds.