Nghiên cứu ảnh hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu đến vận chuyển bùn cát tới hồ chứa Lai Châu

Abstract

     Vietnam is considered as one of the countries most severely affected by climate change. Climate change is reflected in a number of aspects, increasing rainfall in the rainy season and decreasing in the dry season. The number of rainy days is reduced, unseasonal rain and extreme rain are more common. The temperature increased markedly, the number of hot days increased. This paper simulates climate change from the output of global climate models (GCMs), used to predict future climate conditions for the Lai Chau reservoir basin and then uses erosion models as RUSLE to predict the effects of climate change on sediment transport for mid- and late-century. The results of RUSLE model for two periods of model calibration (1986-2005) and model testing (2006-2010) give good results. Climate change simulations show that the average temperature increases by about 1o C, while the rainfall changes tend to be insignificant, but increase in intensity and magnitude, leading to increased erosion in terms of seasons, as well as by year. According to the calculation results, when taking into account climate change, the amount of sediment at Lai Chau station increased in both the mid-century and the end of the century.