Dự báo phân bố mưa cho các tiểu lưu vực trong lưu vực sông Srêpốk theo mô hình CMIP6

Abstract

The Srepok River transboundary basin in the Central Highlands plays an important role in the region's socio-economic development. This study applied statistical methods to calculate and evaluate rainfall distribution in the basin using data from 1981 to 2020 at 14 meteorological stations. Forecasting rainfall distribution was predicted for 10 sub-basins in the area according to SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios, with results extracted from the EC-Earth3-Veg model using ArcGIS 10.5 software. The study results indicate that rainfall tends to increase towards the end of the 21st century, but its distribution is uneven among the sub-basins. By 2080,rainfall is projected to be lower than the multi-year average. The Ia Drang and Ia Lop sub-basins exhibit irregular water distribution throughout the year, while the Thuong Ea Krong Ana sub-basin has lower rainfall. The detailed calculations of rainfall distribution for these sub-basins provide a scientific basis for developing water resources allocation management scenarios for the area.