Catch-up Index and Convergence traps in ASEAN

Abstract

The study aims to evaluate the convergence of ASEAN countries by studying the Catch-up Index and the number of years to convergence with US and Brunei. To calculate Catch-up Index, the study uses the method of Kant (2019) and collects data of ASEAN countries for the period 1970 to 2019 from Penn World Table 10. The results show that except for Brunei and Singapore converging with US since early, the rest of ASEAN countries are still in the process of catching up with US. However, the study also indicates that from 1970 to 2019, ASEAN countries (except Brunei and Singapore) might fall into the convergence- trap. According to the result, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand and Laos are the next four countries that will converge with the US after 2050 and with Brunei after 2065. Therefore, the study has recommendations for Vietnam to achieve the goal of convergence.