Vulnerability assessment of crops due to saline intrusion in Vinh Long Province

Abstract

Saline intrusion has become one of the most serious threats to agriculture in the Mekong Delta, yet most existing studies have focused on regional or river-basin scales, with limited attention to local-level differences. Vinh Long Province, where crop structures are diverse and highly sensitive to salinity, has received little systematic vulnerability assessment despite being increasingly exposed to salinity stress. This study aims to fill this gap by assessing the vulnerability of major crops to saline intrusion in Vinh Long Province, focusing on dry-season cultivation during 2021-2023. Input data include statistical yearbooks, expert consultation, and 128 field questionnaires. The methodology applies the AHP-based Vulnerability Index approach, integrating three components: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. Results show that Vung Liem and Tra On districts exhibit high vulnerability (Vi > 0.6), while Vinh Long city is least affected. The findings not only highlight spatial differences in vulnerability but also provide a scientific basis for designing locally tailored adaptation strategies in agriculture.