APPLY THE METHOD USING TWO SHORT AND LONG TERM ANTECEDENT PRECIPITATION INDICES FOR WARNING SEDIMENT DISASTER IN SOME AREAS OF VIETNAM

Abstract

This paper introduces some methods used in Japan for warning sediment disasters and a feasibility study of the method using two short and long term antecedent precipitation indeces for some areas in Vietnam (Mai Chau area – Hoa Binh province, Mu Cang Chai area – Yen Bai province and Muong La area – Son La province). The results indicated that the model using this method could detect 75% land slides that occured in Mai Chau area. In addition, the model built for Mu Cang Chai area was verified to be able to predict the debris flow occured on August 3th 2017. The occurrence of the landslides in Muong La area on the same day also could be predicted if using the warning model. This demonstrated the effectiveness of the method for warning sediment disasters. The proposed method could be easily applied to other regions where the rainfall data and historical sediment disaster events are sufficiently recorded.