VARIABILITY OF THE VIETNAM SUMMER MONSOON FOR THE 21st CENTURY: PROJECTION OF PRECIS MODEL UNDER RCP4.5 AND RCP8.5 SCENARIOS

Abstract

Based on the projections of the PRECIS/CNRM and PRECIS/GFDL models, this article presents the changes in variability of Vietnam summer monsoon for 2046-2065 (mid-21st century) and 2080-2099 (end-21^st century) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 compared with the baselise (1981-2005). Predicted results in the future under the medium and high scenario (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) show that of onset and withdrawal dates would likely change insignificantly in the future. The variability of the onset dates would likely decrease in the future. However, the variability of the withdrawal would like increase considerably in the future. In addition, results showed the variability of duration and intensity would increase in the future.