ASSESSMENT RESEARCH ON THE DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF TYPICAL ECOSYSTEMS IN PHU QUOC ACCORDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS

Abstract

Phu Quoc is a large island located in the Southwest Sea. This island has great potential for economic development whilst being relevant to national security. In recent years, climate change and sea level rise are factors which have made ecosystems such as coral reefs, seagrasses, mangroves being severely degraded. In this study, we used the weighted measurement methods to measure and evaluate quantitively the effects of factors attributing to degrade the ecosystems such as economic-social development activities and climate changes, sea level rises. This method consists of 3 steps as following: (1) Determining the causes of the recession; (2) Determining the weights for the causes and the degree of degradation corresponding to 1 weight; and (3) Calculating the degree of ecosystem degradation by weighting and forecasting time. The forecast of ecosystem degradation level of Phu Quoc is made according to climate change scenarios - RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050. This research paper can provide more detailed results as following: reduction of coverage of mangrove ecosystem is predicted to be 19,2% according RCP4.5 scenarios and 22,4% according RCP8.5 scenarios; reduction of coverage of seagrasses ecosystem is predicted to be 16,8% according RCP4.5 scenarios and 21,6% according RCP8.5 scenarios; reduction of coverage of coral reefs ecosystem is predicted to be 21,12% according RCP4.5 scenarios and 24,96% according RCP8.5 scenarios. The results from the research have enormous implications for scientific research, serving to measure economic losses due to ecosystem degradation caused by climate change, rising sea levels and and propose solutions to conserve and manage ecosystems effectively in the context of climate change.