STUDY ON THE DETEMINATION OF TRIGGER THRESHOLD VALUE FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONES - INDUCED FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS FOR EARLY ACTION

Abstract

This paper presents a method to calculate and identify triggering thresholds when there is an active tropical cyclones so that governmental and non - governmental agencies and organizations can take measures to deploy response and relief activities. The trigger threshold is built based on the relationship between the maximum cumulative rainfall in 3 - days, the maximum wind when the storm makes landfall, and damage data such as the number of houses being swept away, roofs removed. The exponential regression method is applied to build a model to predict the damage caused by the impact of the storm. The study indicates that the trigger warning threshold for three - day cumulative rainfall is 429 mm and the storm’s maximum windfall is 25 m/s. This result can be used to build a process of monitoring and relief when there is tropical cyclones.