Forecast the risk of progress of diabetes type II within 10 years for the adults of Vu Ban District, Nam Dinh Province

Abstract

     It is necessary to forecast the risk of suffering from diabetes type II for the basis of planning and distributing reasonable health care resource. Objective: Forecast the risk of progress of diabetes type II within 10 years for the adults of Vu Ban District, Nam Dinh Province. Methods: cross-sectional descriptive study on 1928 subjects aged from 40-75 and selected randomly in Vu Ban District, Nam Dinh Province. FINDRISC Scale is used to forecast the risk of progress of diabetes type II within 10 years. Findings: Risk classification according to the scale FINDRISC shows only 6.13% of subjects at risk of moderate to high for type II diabetes. There is no difference in the risk of progression by 2024 between males (3.09%) and females (3.13%). The risk of disease progression is 3.13% the whole community (CI: 2.74% -3.52%). Conclusion: by 2024 the current rate of adults in Vu Ban District with diabetes type II will increase by 3.13% compared with the year 2014. This is an important basis to develop strategies to prevent and control diabetes type II in the community for the present as well as the future.