Using the grey forecasting model to forecast Vietnam’s export turnover value from 2025 to 2030

Abstract

This study uses the GM (1,1) and the DGM (1,1) model to forecast the export turnover value of Vietnam in the period time of 2025 – 2030 based on the historical data set collected from the General Department of Vietnam Customs under the Ministry of Finance in the period of 2013 – 2023. Based on the simulation results, the empirical study shows that both models are suitable for forecasting the export turnover value of Vietnam with an accuracy (MAPE value) of over 90%. However, the GM (1,1) model gives better forecasting results than the GM (1,1) forecasting model with a MAPE value of 95.63%. Therefore, the GM (1,1) model is prioritized to forecast Vietnam's export turnover in the period of 2025 – 2030. The forecast results provide a future perspective of the economy and are a theoretical basis for macroeconomic planners, agencies, and even businesses to orient, plan development and build strategies in the near future.