10. RESEARCH ON 24-HOUR THUNDERSTORM FORECASTING IN SUMMER MONTHS FOR THE DIEN BIEN REGION USING THE STATISTICAL METHOD

Abstract

Thunderstorms are one of the most dangerous weather phenomena, making them a constant subject of study for meteorologists. Weather forecasting in general, and thunderstorm forecasting in particular, have seen significant advancements in Vietnam in recent years. Forecast products from numerical models, radar data, and upper-air observations have improved thunderstorm forecasts. However, in the context of global climate change, natural disasters such as storms, heavy rain, floods, and especially small-scale phenomena like thunderstorms, squalls, tornadoes, and waterspouts have become increasingly complex and unpredictable. Therefore, quantitative forecasting methods are urgently needed to help forecasters make objective assessments to support thunderstorm forecasting operations effectively. Studying thunderstorm forecasting in the summer months for the Dien Bien region using statistical methods will provide us with a more accurate approach to forecasting this phenomenon.