9. Developing climate-adaptive coffee production in Gia Lai province: A sustainable strategy toward 2045

Abstract

This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on coffee yield in Gia Lai province and propose sustainable adaptation strategies toward 2045. A mixed-methods approach was applied, combining both qualitative and quantitative techniques through household surveys conducted in three key districts. A multiple linear regression model was employed, using coffee yield (tons/ha) as the dependent variable, and independent variables including the number of unseasonal rainy days, coffee variety, farming techniques, and soil type. The findings indicate that unseasonal rainfall reduces yield by 0.08 tons/ha (p = 0.004), while improved varieties and advanced techniques increase yield by 0.55 and 0.43 tons/ha, respectively. Households implementing adaptive farming models achieved an average yield of 2.25 tons/ha. The study proposes applying the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model to simulate future yield under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate scenarios, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model to determine the priority of adaptation strategies. The novelty of the study lies in the integration of quantitative forecasting and strategic prioritization to enhance the policy feasibility of climate-resilient coffee sector development.