14. Assessment of the adaptive capacity of agricultural households to climate change: a case study in Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province

Abstract

This study examines the adaptive capacity of agricultural households to climate change, with a focus on aquaculture-based livelihoods in Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province - an area identified as highly susceptible to climate-induced vulnerabilities. The study was conducted before the administrative merger. Currently, Giao Thuy district, now under Ninh Binh province, comprises seven newly established communes following the reorganization of administrative units. Employing the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) developed by DFID, the research constructs a multidimensional index encompassing five capital assets: human, social, financial, natural, and physical. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, integrating structured household surveys (n = 250), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) to quantify and compare adaptive capacities across five coastal communes. Results reveal that while general awareness of climate change among respondents is relatively high, conceptual understanding remains limited. Among the five livelihood capitals, financial capital is identified as the most constraining factor influencing household adaptive capacity, followed by physical and human capital. The study recommends targeted interventions, including capacity-building, infrastructural investment, and climate-smart technological integration, to enhance resilience and promote sustainable livelihood adaptation in climate-sensitive coastal zones.