The application of system dynamic modelling for simulation and prediction of water demand and supply balance in Hanoi

Abstract

In Hanoi, the rapid urbanization and the ever-increasing resident density have strained water supply sources (WSS). Hanoi residents have been facing a number of problems related to its WSS due to the unbalancing between water demand and supply. Therefore, it is necessary to deal with the demand-supply balance gap, the complexity of Hanoi’s WSS components, especially the behavior interactions among those components. In this study, system dynamic modelling was applied to simulate the main components of Hanoi WSS and the dynamic relationships among these components using the integration of population, input water source, and water consumption models. We then construct feedback loops and stock-flow charts of Hanoi WSS to simulate and predict the future balance of water supply and demand from 2015 to 2050. The obtained results will contribute in the formulation of policies regarding how to improve the demand-supply balance to archive a sustainable WSS for Hanoi communities.