The impact of climate change on rice yield in Thai Binh province, Vietnam

Abstract

Thai Binh is an agricultural province and the people's livelihood is mainly engaged in agricultural production (about 63 - 65% labors of the province). The agricultural production of the province mainly depends on natural conditions. In fact, there has been an increase in extreme weather phenomena, such as hot weather, drought, extreme cold, damaging cold, storms and tropical depressions etc in recent years. This is significant impact on rice productivity in Thai Binh province. The objective of study is to investigate the impact of climate change on rice yield in Thai Binh province by using the Aquacrop model. The results showed that with RCP4.5 scenario, the winter-spring rice yield increased by 0.74 - 0.92 tons/ha when compared to the baseline scenario in the first period; in 2046 - 2065, the rice yield reached 0.82 - 0.98 tons/ha; and the rice yield reached 0.91 - 1.09 tons/ha in the last period. In which, Thai Binh city has the lowest increase, Dong Hung, Hung Ha and Tien Hai districts have the highest increase at all three periods. With RCP8.5 scenario, the rice yield increased in the last two periods, slightly decreased at the first period when compared to the baseline scenario. In Thai Binh city and Thai Thuy district, rice yield increased slightly. The rice yield in Dong Hung and Tien Hai districts were higher than the baseline scenario.