03. Forecast impacts of climate change on agricultural land erosion in Dak Lak province by RCP 4.5 scenarios

Abstract

Dak Lak is a large province with the total area of 13.125,37 km², including 15 district-level administrative units, stretching from 107^o28'57" to 108^o59'37" East longitude and from 12^o9'45" to 13^o25'06" North latitude. In this study, soil erosion in Dak Lak province was built by GIS method, based on the formula of the variable universal soil loss equation RUSLE, including 5 coefficients: land cover coefficient (C); coefficient of erosion due to rain (R); soil erosion coefficient (K); topographic erosion coefficient (LS) and coefficient due to farming method (P). The climate change scenario RCP4.5 to determine the extent and location of soil erosion areas according to 3 levels (light, moderate and strong erosion) was also applied. The results showed that at the beginning of the century (2016 - 2035), the degree of light erosion, moderate erosion and strong erosion were 153.66 ha, 32.978 ha and 6.382 ha, respectively. In the mid-century (2046 - 2065), light erosion will be 156.535 ha; moderate erosion 34.748 ha and strong erosion 6.597 ha.