08. Applying mathematical models and GIS techniques in forecasting land cover, land use changes in Quy Nhon city

Abstract

In recent years, the urbanization rate of Quy Nhon city has increased rapidly. The assessment and forecast of land use change is an important prerequisite solution that helps the local government of Quy Nhon city to plan, manage and use this resource properly, maintain a sustainable ecosystem and develop the economy and society. In this study, Landsat images for the period 2010 - 2020 were used to generate the land cover, land use maps. The Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with Markov - CA was also used to model the land use change of Quy Nhon city. The results showed that the modeling results were highly accurate (compared to the results of land use, land cover classification in 2020, the accuracy rate >85%). The model therefore was used to predict land use changes in Quy Nhon city in 2025, 2035 and 2050. Accordingly, urban land is still rapidly increasing in Quy Nhon city in years to come. Unused land and vacant land will be used economically for the development of the city.