07. Study to develop equations for 24-hour rain forecast in the rainy season for Dien Bien province

Abstract

Based on the use of monitoring data set at Dien Bien, Tuan Giao, and Muong Lay stations, air sensing data of Dien Bien station in the period from April to September 2013 to 2019, the research used logistics regression method and multivariate linear regression to build the equation for predicting probability and precipitation for the area of Dien Bien province. The results of forecasting the probability of rain on independent data series are relatively high, the FC/PC index ranges from 75 - 82 %, POD ranges from 67 - 84 %, while the forecast rate is short (FAR) of equations are quite low, ranging from 0.11 - 0.29. For the forecast of rainfall, the results show that for small rainfall, the equation for high forecast and high rainfall forecasts is low. The greater the error when the rainfall increases.