Evaluation of changes of water resources in the Dong Nai niver basin and its surrounding basins

Abstract

    In oder to social-economic development and mitigate damages of water disasters, the problem of water resources reasonble and sustainable exploitation and utilization in the Dong Nai River Basin and Surrounding have been considered a basical premise for all activities in the Southern zone of Vietnam. Studying integrated effects of social-economic development and climate changes by past decades in the Dong Nai River Basin and Surroundings show that annual average flows increasing (mainly by rainy season flows increasing) and low flow decreasing. With the climate changes scenarios of MoNRE (Had-CM3, B2), annual average flow will be increased corresponding with annual average rainfall in the basin. With the  extremelydriest model (IPSL_CM4) and wettest model (GISS_ER), the general trends of surface flows are lower/higher than medium scenarios to 2030 and 2050 stages are -2.0 and -1.8%, +3.1 and +5.1%, corresponding.In the Dong Nai River Basinand Surroundings, the strongest changes of annual average flows are occured in two Sub-Basins. By the driest model, it is decreased about 11.7% to 2030 and 8,4% to 2050 in the Be River Basin, and by the westtest model, increasing 10.4% to 2030 and 13.2% to 2050 in the Upper Dong Nai River Basin.